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| China is likely to have the largest submarine forces in Asia by 2020. (Internet Photo) |
Dr Robert Ross, professor of political science at Boston College, estimates that the PLA Navy is likely to have 70 submarines by the year 2020, a number Global Asia, a magazine based in South Korea, reported earlier this month.
Of those 70 subs, Ross said that 63 will be nuclear
- or diesel-powered attack boats to challenge US sea power in the region. He pointed out that not only warships and submarines but also land-based anti-ship missiles and aircraft have been mobilized to carry out this grand strategy. But this may be more saber rattling than anything else, as China is most likely trying to defeat US naval power in East Asia with "naval suasion."
"Naval suasion," which was described 40 years ago by naval strategist Edward Luttwak, is a term for a nation wanting to convince rivals that its navy can win on the high seas through a show of ships, warplanes and armaments without launching a real attack.
Ross said only 33 of the US Navy's nuclear-powered fast attack submarines are currently deployed to the Asia-Pacific to counter the PLA Navy's submarine fleet. This certainly gives China a great opportunity to demonstrate its power of "naval suasion." The total number of US submarines will be reduced from 73 to 42 by the mid-2020s. Between 25 and 26 submarines are likely to be deployed to the Asia-Pacific region by 2025.
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